Each year, the American Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) provides Congress with a report on observed and foreseeable developments in major military nations. This year's report on China attracts particular attention because it considers that the country would be about to cross a technological and psychological threshold, leading the Chinese military and leaders to consider that they have the resources and forces, in sufficient quantity and quality, to challenge the United States in a regional conflict, particularly concerning Taiwan.
According to this report, until now Chinese political and military leaders considered that the military tool was in gestation, in a process of transformation to reach a level comparable to that of the United States. This explained the apparent Chinese passivity on the regional and international scene. But recent professionalization reforms, as well as the dazzling technological progress undertaken by the armies over the past 10 years, now allow these same leaders to have a sufficient level of confidence to undertake major actions.
The capture of Taiwan appears to be the most probable, but other theaters could also be, notably against India, and in the China Sea. However, the report concludes that today, nothing suggests that China anticipates a major global confrontation, and only envisages localized regional conflicts.