After the Russian ZAPAD2017 exercises which brought together more than 100.000 men in Russia and Belarus, and the VOSTOK 2018 exercise in Eastern SIberia which brought together, according to the authorities, almost 300.000 men, NATO had to react and show that it was , also capable of bringing together a large number of countries and soldiers in an exercise. This is the case today with the annual exercise TRIDENT JUNCTURE 2018, which brings together 40.000 men, 150 aircraft and 70 ships from 31 countries for a week.
If we could still doubt the return of a “Cold War” type situation, the formats of the exercises in recent years, in the European and Pacific Theaters, and the announcements concerning Defense programs remove all doubt on this subject.
But this new cold war differs markedly from the first, and the risks of slipping into open conflicts are greater. Indeed, where the opposition was above all ideological between the two blocs, it is today hegemonic, in a logic much closer to the situation at the beginning of the 50th century than in the 3s. The XNUMX big ones powers, and their allies, play a role aimed at guaranteeing and strengthening their position on the international scene.
In Europe, the elimination of the Warsaw Pact shield is also likely to increase risks. Paradoxically, these countries formed a moderating buffer between the two blocs, and Moscow knew that it was not possible to demand from its “allies” the same level of commitment as from its own forces. Paradoxically, if the vast majority of European countries have joined NATO and the EU, European military power is much lower than it was during the Cold War, and the relative weight of the United States in the Alliance doubled, from 35% to 70%. On the other hand, the United States has not moved physically closer to Europe, there is still the Atlantic Ocean between the two continents. In fact, two thirds of the military power of the Atlantic Alliance are positioned 2 km away, while Russia now shares almost 6000 km of border with NATO countries.
The Indo-Pacific theater, for its part, has become preponderant in global geopolitics, and in the opposition between the United States and China. Chinese forces have adapted to this prospect by developing a leading war fleet in a very short time frame. To the point that, according to several analysts, the United States will be forced to devote the vast majority of its military arsenal to this theater if a conflict were to break out from 2025.
For the moment, the significant trade exchanges between the various major players in global geopolitics have a significant moderating effect on the risks of slippage. Unfortunately, as we have seen in recent months, geopolitical tensions seem to take precedence over trade, and are now even being used in this global confrontation, through American customs duties on Chinese products, or the CAATSA law.
Here again, the situation is dramatically reminiscent of that which prevailed at the beginning of the 20th century, and which led European countries into a logic of war which would give rise to the First World War.