As evidence accumulates of chemical weapons use in Douma on April 7, and France and the United States demand an emergency UN Security Council meeting, a missile attack on the Syrian air base of Tiyas, also called T4, was carried out on the night of April 8 to 9, killing more than a dozen among the Syrian and Iranian soldiers present there. After initially blaming the United States and France, Russia, and Syria, now point the finger at Israel, including two F-15s would have fired 8 cruise missiles against this base, in order to prevent "the creation of an Iranian base" near the Hebrew State.
Tensions between Russia and the West, and in particular the United States, have continued to deteriorate since the intervention in Crimea and Donbass by Russian forces. In recent weeks, they have gone up a notch again, this time about the Syrian regime guilty, according to Western capitals, of using chemical weapons against the rebellious civilian populations. But other related factors intervened to accentuate these tensions, such as the Skipal affair in the United Kingdom, which led to the expulsion of more than 100 diplomats from Russian plenipotentiary representations in the West, and the expulsion in retaliation of as many Western diplomats from Russia. On Friday April 6, the US State Department also announced new sanctions against people and companies close to Russian power, linked to Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections.
Thus, several reports, relayed on Twitter, indicated the weekend of April 7 and 8, the placing on alert of Russian forces in Syria, and in particular the S-400 and S-300 batteries. The Russian fighter aircraft present on site would have undertaken to set up combat patrols, with 4 of the 12 Su-30s present on site, permanently in the air, and equipped for Air-Air combat. Su-24M patrols would have crisscrossed the Eastern Mediterranean to detect deployments of Western naval forces, likely to announce an upcoming strike, while two maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare aircraft would have taken turns to detect and/or or keep Western submarines away from the Syrian approaches.
Other reports, still on Twitter, noted the placing on alert of several Russian units in Russia, notably airborne troops, and certain units close to Donbass, in the Rostov-on-don Oblast, generating a start of panic in eastern Ukraine. Whether these reports are proven or not, we understand, from the simple fact of their existence, the extreme Russian feverishness in the face of Western reaction, whether in Syria or in Ukraine.
In this context, the Israeli attack, if it is proven that it was they who were at the origin of this strike, could have triggered a series of events with serious consequences. But before that, we can ask ourselves why the Syrian authorities decided to use chemical weapons once again, knowing that this was an unnecessary provocation against the West?
When questioning the subject, we must note the reaction of Turkey, which after ignoring Syrian and Russian warnings against the continuation of the “Olive Branch” operation in Syrian Kurdistan, actively played appeasement this weekend, going so far as, unofficially, to ask Westerners not to intervene, because Russia was ready to respond. We can therefore wonder if this gas attack was not intended, not to unnecessarily provoke the West, but to send a message to the Turks and to force Russia to stop its new ally in Syria.
Whatever the case, whether it is the use of gas by the Syrian regime, Turkish stubbornness against the Kurds, or the Israeli strike, we witnessed this weekend a chain of events, the consequences of which would have could, and still can, be of severe severity. The sharp declines in the ruble and the Moscow MOEX stock index at the opening this morning are direct consequences of these growing fears of a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.